Net zero and the false promise of UK gas
More UK gas will not make a positive difference to customers. Renewables are the only way towards cheaper and more secure energy, and to reach net zero.
For a period, there was a broad political consensus around the need to act on climate change. Net zero, while contested in detail, was accepted across the political mainstream as both necessary and inevitable. That consensus has now fractured.
Reform UK openly opposes net zero and is sceptical of many core elements of the climate science underpinning it. More worryingly, the Conservatives – pulled by the political gravity of Reform – have stepped back from their own commitments. They now argue against the 2050 net zero target and have joined Reform in arguing for increasing domestic oil and gas production.
In this political context, calls to ramp up North Sea gas extraction are growing louder, amplified by a largely uncritical media. The argument is presented as common sense: more UK gas, lower bills, greater energy security. While this may sound attractive, it does not stand up to scrutiny.
First, gas and oil are traded on global markets. Prices are not determined by how much the UK produces, but by international supply and demand. Right now, prices are being driven by events in the Gulf and elsewhere. Even a significant increase in North Sea production would not reduce household energy bills by a single penny.
Second, it’s sometimes argued that domestic production enhances energy security by reducing reliance on imports. But gas and oil have no nationality. Once extracted, they’re sold to whoever pays the most. Production is not reserved for UK consumers, so it does nothing to break the link between UK prices and volatile international markets.
Thirdly, there is another inconvenient truth rarely acknowledged in political debate or media commentary… the North Sea is a mature basin. Output has been declining for years and cannot be rapidly increased. Any new investment would take many years to deliver meaningful volumes, long after today’s energy challenges have passed.
If demands for “more UK gas” were really about security, we would hear calls to reserve gas for domestic use, delink prices from global markets, and bring production under public control.
There is a far better route to genuine energy security. Investing in renewables, strengthening the grid, and accelerating the roll‑out of heat pumps and electric vehicles. This would cut bills, lower emissions, and deliver benefits far sooner than new fossil fuel projects ever could.
We can choose an accelerated drive for renewables and long‑term security, or double down on North Sea oil and gas and remain exposed to global price shocks. The choice should be obvious.